Hurricane and storm surge warnings were issued for the Big Bend region of Florida as Tropical Storm Debby strengthened over the Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunters investigated Debby Saturday evening as squalls spread across the Keys and the Florida peninsula, with tropical storm conditions possible in parts of the Florida Keys tonight, the NHC reported.
➤ Live updates: Get the latest on Tropical Depression 4 as it approaches Florida
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Four
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Thursday declared a state of emergency Thursday for 54 counties. Seven more counties were added late Friday, putting 61 of Florida's 67 counties under a state of emergency.
Tropical Storm Debby is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night before making landfall on the Big Bend coast Monday morning.
To become a hurricane, sustained winds must reach 74 mph.
Sustained winds were at 45 mph as of the 11 p.m. advisory.
Where is Tropical Storm Debby?
- Location: 50 miles west-southwest of the Dry Tortugas, 260 miles south-southwest of Tampa
- Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
- Movement: west-northwest at 14 mph
- Next advisory: 5 a.m. Aug. 4
Tropical Storm Debby expected to strengthen
At 11 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 83.6 West, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Debby is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph.
➤ How could tropical storm affect your weekend plans?
A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.
The center is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night, before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast.
Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. Wind gusts to 49 mph and 48 mph were recently reported at the Key West Naval Air Station and Key West International Airport, respectively.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.
Spaghetti models: Latest forecasts on where Tropical Storm Debby could make Florida landfall
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Hurricane, tropical storm watches and warnings issued for Florida
A hurricane warning is in effect for:
- The Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A hurricane watch is in effect for:
- Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
- Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
- The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas
- West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
- The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
- The Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A storm surge warning is in effect for:
- Aripeka northward to Indian Pass
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
A storm surge watch is in effect for:
- Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor
A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
Potential impacts from Potential Tropical Cyclone Four
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch areas on Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas tonight through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL...6-10 ft
- Yankeetown to Suwannee River, FL ...4-7 ft
- Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-6 ft
- Aripeka to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
- Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
- Bonita Beach to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
- Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
- Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 18 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected.
For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through tonight. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the southern and western parts of the Florida Peninsula through tonight, expanding across much of northern and central Florida on Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Key messages on what Florida can expect from Tropical Storm Debby
- Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast through Thursday. Significant river flooding is also expected.
- Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.
- There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
- Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Sunday.
Florida Gov. DeSantis issues state of emergency for 61 counties
Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency Thursday for 54 counties in preparationfor the potential landfall of a stormthat could become the first "significant threat" to the state.
Friday night, he added another seven counties. That brings 61 of the state's 67 counties under a state of emergency.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
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